Wellness and moderation mindsets are structural macro trends that are reshaping the way in which consumers engage with Grocery and Alcohol purchases, globally and in Australia, today.
There are several drivers behind these shifts, one of which is the growing response to the obesity crisis, which impacts 13 million Australians. The growing role that GLP-1s play can no longer be ignored, as usage is emerging as one of the most significant consumer behaviours change events of the decade – reshaping how people are eating, drinking, shopping and spending.
Currently, 13% of Australian households engage with GLP-1s, although this trails US adoption at 23%; usage locally is steadily increasing. Both US and Australian usage skews towards female, Gen X, and higher-income cohorts. Looking ahead, increased awareness alongside the convenience and cost advantages of oral doses will likely drive adoption across a broader and more diverse audience.
The change in behaviour driven by GLP-1 extends beyond users simply consuming less and includes a more intentional focus on nutrition. Users prioritise nutrient-dense, functional foods that meet their nutritional needs in smaller doses and reduce Sugar, Saturated fats, Fried foods and Alcohol, from their pre-treatment repertoire.
In the US, this is clearly demonstrated by the shift in spend during active GLP-1 use, as shoppers spend more on several categories including: Prepared Meat, Yogurt and Dried Meat Snacks. Conversely, Alcohol, most notably Wine and RTDs (Premix Cocktails/Coolers/Seltzer), see spend soften to the greatest extent. Closer to home, similar patterns are noted within Australian consumption. 51% of GLP-1 users are consuming more water, while 69% of users consume less Fried Foods, 43% consume less Soft Drinks and 39% consume less Alcoholic Beverages as users have fewer cravings and seek to avoid bloating.
Currently, long-term GLP-1 usage is unexpected, as 81% of US users stop within the first 12 months. In Australia, 84% of lapsed users stopped treatment within a year, and under half of current users expect treatment to extend beyond this period. When ending treatment, the scope for rebound is notable, as 67% of users in the US and 38% of Australians are worse off after treatment and regain weight.
While it’s fair to say that GLP-1 use is reducing Liquor consumption, it’s unlikely that it significantly impedes the social occasions that Alcohol features in; emphasising the importance of continuously furthering the understanding of the Selective Sipper to guide decisions around how their needs are met.
Ensuring that GLP-1 users can participate in the occasions in which Liquor plays a critical role, will help to keep and maintain connection to them, as well as assist in retaining consumption from the non-users they socialise and engage with during these moments.
Moderation mindsets are here to stay and continuing the progression of offerings that cater to them will be vital. Low-ABV, NOLO sugar, and elevated Alcohol-free options are existing platforms that can be bolstered by easier drinking offerings which are “lighter”, “less creamy” and “less carbonated”. These will create more opportunities for current GLP-1 users to engage with Liquor, and help to retain those consumers post-treatment, regardless of whether behavioural shifts relapse.
As the influence of GLP-1s on the Selective Sipper continues and moderation becomes more widespread, brands, merchants and venues are able to play an important role in responding to these shifts in a manner that supports responsible consumption and a sustainable industry.
Circana is a Gold Partner of the Drinks Association.