Walk into a bottle shop today and you’ll see what feels familiar to most shoppers. Broad ranges, tidy stores, and a standard of execution that’s improving year-on-year.
On the surface, things look steady. Beneath that, though, the market is shifting in ways that matter for suppliers who are serious about growth in the next three to five years.
Sales remain under pressure. ABS data shows liquor value declined by 0.2% in the 12 months to March 2025. Yet shopper sentiment is moving in the opposite direction. In this year’s State of the Nation update, we reported that overall satisfaction climbed to 70%, the highest since 2021 and 8% up on last year. It’s a reassuring sign for an industry that, in many ways, is built on experience.
But those gains are uneven. The clear divide is generational. Shoppers under 40 are now significantly less satisfied than older drinkers, and this is the first time the gap has opened so widely in this direction. Younger shoppers feel the channel doesn’t reflect their preferences strongly enough, and that should be a red flag for brands and retailers planning for sustainable growth.
For suppliers, this is the commercial opportunity hiding in plain sight.
Where the Market Is Tracking Upwards
Three signals point in the right direction.
First, the lift in satisfaction suggests people are feeling better about the overall experience. That matters because satisfaction tends to correlate with spend and frequency.
Second, perceptions of premium have jumped more than any other measure. Shoppers are giving credit for better-quality ranges, authenticity cues, and products aligned with health trends. When value for money is clear, people are willing to trade up.
Third, the “occasion mindset” continues its rise. Four in ten shoppers say they had a specific occasion in mind when buying liquor. That number is increasing, and it spans food occasions, social gatherings, and at-home hosting. A broader array of categories is in consideration in these moments, and there’s real value to be had for suppliers who can dial this up in their brand messaging.
These are the platforms for the industry to build upon.
But they won’t be enough on their own.
The Gap That Threatens Future Demand
Two commercial challenges stand out.
The first is declining brand follow-through. In 2025, only 42% of shoppers who planned to buy a specific brand actually purchased it. That’s a six-point drop in one year. Promotions are working harder than ever, but the noise makes it harder for people to navigate ranges and stick with the brand they intended. Equity is being traded away for short-term wins.
The second challenge is the widening satisfaction gap between younger and older shoppers. Older shoppers are broadly content, especially with in-store execution. Under-40s are not. They want healthier options, greater authenticity, and clearer product information. They shop with purpose and link their choices to occasions. When those expectations aren’t met, disengagement follows.
This is not a marginal audience. These are tomorrow’s high-value shoppers. Alienate them today and the job of winning them back will be harder still in the future.
Three Commercial Priorities for 2026
1. Strengthen brand stories to support conversion.
The drop in planned-to-purchased conversion is a warning sign. Promotions will always matter, but storytelling needs a boost at shelf and in digital environments. Consistency across advertising, retailer media, and activation will help brands cut through.
2. Build the offer around younger shoppers.
Under-40s want clarity. They want innovation that is easy to find. They want product information that is relevant, not overwhelming. Improving layout is part of it, but the bigger win is aligning the channel more closely to their lifestyle expectations.
3. Deepen supplier–retailer collaboration to close execution gaps.
Challenges like brand switching and shelf confusion are best solved together. That means tighter alignment of category roles, clearer execution of NPD, and activations tailored to different shopper groups.
The opportunity is clear. Keep today’s shoppers happy, while shaping the channel for the ones who will define its future. Winning means acting now to close the gap.